System dynamics applications to European health care issues

John Morecroft

Abstract

Taking a European perspective, a review is made of some system dynamics models which address health care issues. Suggestions are made for the types of role which these models should take, bearing in mind the strategic orientation of system dynamics modelling. Examples are described of qualitative models where influence diagrams are the main analytical tool. Quantitative system dynamics models have a contribution to make in epidemiological studies and have been used to analyse the AIDS epidemic. A detailed example of one aspect of model formulation is given. This concerns the AIDS incubation time distribution and shows how real-world complications arising from virological staging and treatment effects are handled in a model of AIDS spread.

Keywords:

• system dynamics
• health care
• managerial learning
• public policy
• HIV/AIDS