Analysing the effectiveness of Chlamydia screening

Abstract

Chlamydia is a highly prevalent sexually transmitted infection which is normally asymptomatic. Chlamydia is a major public health concern since it is one of the biggest causes of infertility in the UK. A screening programme has been proposed and here we analyse its potential cost-effectiveness. Previous modelling analyses for Chlamydia screening have been inadequate at representing the dynamic complexity of the impact. Most notably, the impact on the population prevalence has been overlooked as well as the possibility for an individual to become re-infected after treatment. A system dynamics model was built using the array facility in the ithink software to represent a heterogeneous population. This population was disaggregated along two dimensions: age and sexual activity levels. Results suggest that the proposed screening programme would prevent significant numbers of infertility cases annually. Additionally, it could be paying for itself after about four years and recouping the initial outlay after about twelve years.

Keywords:

• cost-effectiveness
• health
• infectious diseases
• screening
• sexually transmitted infections
• system dynamics