Blackett Memorial Lecture Air safety: end of the golden age?

Abstract

First-World aviation has become so safe that a passenger who takes a domestic jet flight every day would, on average, go 36 000 years before succumbing to a fatal crash. But certain aerial dangers that were practically absent from the First World in the 1990s might be poised for a resurgence. (Among these hazards are terrorism, mid-air collisions, and ground collisions.) We explore recent data about the mortality risk of air travel, and discuss the prospects for the years ahead.

Keywords:

• transportation-air
• reliability-system safety
• statistics-risk analysis

Presented to The Society on 27th November 2000

Presented to The Society on 27th November 2000