Discontinuity in decision-making when objectives conflict: a military command decision case study

Abstract

In previous work, we considered the representation of human decision-making processes in closed-form simulation models of conflict. An important element of this representation is the rapid planning process that embodies the processing of information for situation assessment to support a course of action decision (eg in a military headquarters). The application of this work is in support of operational analysis models for defence procurement and balance of investment. This paper describes the application of non-linear multi-attribute utility theory in conflict scenarios in order to extend the representation of the rapid planning process to account for a wider set of subjective attributes of the decision-maker. The results show, through examination of experimental data, that decision-making can be modelled through a particular class of utility functions. These utilities embody a geometry which allows us to classify the types of decision being made when there are conflicting objectives and when decision-makers adopt very different and subjective appraisals of constraints and beliefs in outcome. The experimental results help to demonstrate that the subjective nature of the situation assessment, and the personality, training, experience and history of the decision-maker are central to the functional representations. This paper presents a way to capture this deeper representation of human decision-making in a way that is potentially useful for quantitative modelling using the rapid planning process as a basis.

Keywords:

• decision analysis
• defence studies
• gaming
• military
• multi-objective
• risk

after two revisions

This paper contains information which is QinetiQ copyright. This paper contains information which is Dstl copyright.

after two revisions

This paper contains information which is QinetiQ copyright. This paper contains information which is Dstl copyright.

Acknowledgements

The experimental results in this paper are drawn from an experiment designed and run by Graham Mathieson of Dstl and Paddy Turner of QinetiQ to whom we express our sincere gratitude. The peace-keeping scenario was devised by our military Intelligence Officer Jon Lee and we received further expert military support and guidance from Lt Col Merfyn Lloyd, Maj Harry Duncan, Maj Andy Parsons, Maj Charles Cooper and Gen Sir Rupert Smith. We also thank the 24 military officers who were the willing participants. Finally, thanks to our technical reviewers Dr David Marsay and Dr Brian Bramson with technical support from Sean Richardson, Robin Poulter and Dr Andy Belyavin, and last but not least, to our MoD sponsors and advisors DG(S&A).