Simulation modelling in healthcare: reviewing legacies and investigating futures

Abstract

This article proposes considered futures for the use of simulation as a problem solving technique within healthcare settings. Using a synthesis of trends identified by a selection of experts in the field, academics and industrialists, critical analysis was applied to find the differences between what exists and what could be created based on outlining some major themes. The survey data reveals that most respondents agree on following whole system approaches with more joined up modelling or mixed methods to tackle problems rather than single-solution-based practices. The article then presents options for how simulation could be used within the healthcare domain. Such options or futures could assist in identifying the critical barriers towards having a successful strategy and provide the basis for debate that will be necessary to attain it.

Keywords:

• health care simulation
• model implementation

Acknowledgements

We thank the three anonymous referees who reviewed this paper for their views and suggestions, many of which we have been pleased to incorporate, since these improved the quality of the article. All errors and omissions, however, are entirely owned by the author. We also thank Mark Outhwaite, Director of Technologies in Health Group of the former NHS Modernisation Agency for commissioning the exercise under which experts were polled and from which these reflective views have been behind the motivation for writing this paper.