The hazard of being an English football league manager: empirical estimates for three recent league seasons

Abstract

This paper uses data drawn from the English Football League to model separate hazard rates for club managers for the 2001/2, 2002/3 and 2003/4 seasons. On average over the three seasons, approximately one-third of managers involuntarily exited employment status with their club. We model the hazard using a standard logistic model exploiting information on the spell at risk rather than the individual. The role of neglected heterogeneity is also examined using random and fixed effects logistic models within a discrete-time setting. League position at the start of the spell at risk is found to be the most important determinant of a manager's involuntary exit. A variety of individual specific human capital and other covariates are found to be unimportant in determining the hazard and no role for unobservable heterogeneity as captured by random effects is detected.

Keywords:

• hazard rate
• logistic regression model
• sports

Acknowledgements

The authors acknowledge the constructive comments provided by two anonymous referees of this journal. However, the usual disclaimer applies.