Using simulation modelling to support decisions in hail suppression programmes with airborne means

Abstract

This article presents the development and implementation of a stochastic discrete event simulation model. The project aims to analyse and improve the operational processes of a Hail Suppression Programme with airborne means. The main objective of the programme is the minimization of crop damages because of hailstorms. The project involves a simulation model as part of the decision support analysis, which investigates costs and effectiveness of various operational scenarios concerning the interception and neutralization of hailstorms, using airborne seeding. Apart from estimating responses and metrics under miscellaneous scenarios, the model facilitates what-if analysis to inspect and reveal relations between service (interception) times, number of aircrafts, and acceptable values of efficiency metrics. Subsequently, the model has been used to estimate a regression function that has been further implemented in the assessment process for new technologies and materials.

Keywords:

• discrete event simulation
• practice of OR
• meteorology
• weather modification
• agriculture

Acknowledgements

The authors gratefully acknowledge the constructive comments and suggestions from two anonymous reviewers, which substantially improved an earlier version of this article.