Abstract
The interdependence between memory at long term and variability of folk music was investigated, using numerical analysis of a mathematical model. The model describes the effect of the random forgetting as well as reviving of melodies, and determines the probability of recalling for each tune individually as a function of its musical distance from other active melodies. The simulations were performed on a set of 704 tunes representing the living musical tradition of a Hungarian ethnic group. Results show that variation is able to assure the structural stability and long survival of folk music without any kind of notation. Comparison of the above tradition as a musical system to a system of random melodies generated by the computer demonstrates that the clustered structure and the traditional rules of variation of folk music result in a large number of tunes with a long-life expectancy.