Prediction of Surgical Outcome after Aortic Valve Replacement

Abstract

Background : Aortic valve replacement has some major adverse outcomes. For these, the predictors need identification.

Methods : This was a retrospective file study of 1000 consecutive patients who underwent AVR for degenerative aortic valve disease. Twenty-five preoperative and 5 peroperative factors were screened by a univariate Fisher-exact analysis. The predictors were identified in a second step by logistic regression multivariate analysis.

Results : Five hundred thirty patients were male. The mean age was 75 (71–77) years and 610 also underwent CABG. For hospital mortality, need for urgent aortic valve replacement (p < 0.001) was the dominant predictor. Need for digitalis (p = 0.002) and age > 80 (p = 0.005) followed. For postoperative congestive heart failure, need for urgent aortic valve replacement was also dominant (p < 0.001). Atrial fibrillation (p = 0.001,) and ejection fraction < 50% (p = 0.055) were less important. For ventricular arrhythmia, previous infarction (p = 0.025) and ejection fraction < 50% (p = 0.032) were identified. For bleeding, concomitant CABG (p = 0.046) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease were identified. For thromboembolic events only an ejection fraction < 50% (p = 0.027) was identified.

Conclusions : Need for urgent aortic valve replacement is the dominant predictor for postoperative mortality and congestive heart failure. Once a degenerative aortic valve disease becomes symptomatic, prompt referral could prevent the development for need for urgent surgery, with all its adverse postoperative consequences.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

W. Mistiaen

W. P. Mistiaen Artesis University College Dept of Healthcare Sciences J De Boeckstr 10 2610 Antwerp, Belgium Tel.: [phone] Fax: [phone] E-mail: [email protected]; [email protected]