Economic Impact of Mass Production of Alternative Low Emission Automotive Power Systems

Abstract

The study considers a range of possible effects on the transportation industry, satellite industries, the labor market, and the economy which may be anticipated in the event mass production of unconventional low emission automotive propulsion systems should occur, whether as a consequence of federal intervention, or not. A postulated 1 976 Otto Cycle Internal Combustion Engine equipped with a dual catalyst manifold reactor and other “conventional” emission control devices was compared in detail with a Regenerative Free Turbine Engine and a Rankine Cycle Engine, as specified by the contracting agency. Manufacturing costs, operating and ownership costs, consumer demand, inter-industry effects, employment, resource requirements, and international trade implications were analyzed in depth under a number of plausible sets of policy constraints and parametric variations. Principal conclusions are that conversion over a 10 year period is feasible, that manufacturing cost differentials are less critical than fuel consumption and cost differentials, that industry/employment impacts are minor, and that resource/trade effects are dominated by petroleum imports. Implications for federal policy are discussed.