The Influence of Annual Meteorological Variations On Regional Air Pollution Modeling: A Case Study of Allegheny County, Pennsylvania

Abstract

The influence of year-to-year meteorological variations on the prediction of annual average ground-level pollutant concentrations has been examined via case studies of Allegheny County, Pa. Twenty-two stability wind roses representing different averaging intervals of from one to seven years were employed in the Air Quality Display Model to predict annual average SO₂ concentrations in two multiple source sub-basins, and from two single point sources representing industrial and utility boiler stacks. Effects of annual meteorological variations were manifested by changes in the magnitude of peak concentrations, the location of peak concentrations, and the geographic distribution of pollutants. For fixed rates of emission, the peak annual average SO₂ ground-level concentration varied by an average of up to 33% of highest values for point sources and 17% for sub-basin complexes. In both cases, there was relatively little change in the location of peak concentration, though occasional directional shifts were noted. In contrast, marked variations were noted in the geographic area exposed to annual average concentrations in excess of several selected values. To aid in regional planning, several methods were formulated which considerably reduced the uncertainty in predicting peak annual concentration for varying degrees of historical data on regional stability wind rose. These methods are-especially applicable to analysis of control strategies directed at attaining annual ambient air quality standards which nominally must never be exceeded.