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Abstract
This paper is concerned with uncertainties involved in projecting ambient air quality. Ambient air quality was projected by assuming a linear dependence on estimated future emissions. Future automotive emissions were estimated by a method recommended by EPA. Projections were made for the locations reported to have the highest ambient air concentrations of each pollutant; Chicago for carbon monoxide and the California South Coast Air Basin for hydrocarbon and oxidant. The sensitivity of the projections to several input parameters was determined.
The uncertainty in projection of air quality due to the use of a maximum, once-per-year concentration is large. For example, the reduction in total CO emissions in Chicago in 1975, necessary to meet the air quality standard, was as high as 68% or as low as 26%, depending on whether the historic high, 8 hr average concentration of 44 ppm or the 1970 maximum of 21 ppm was used. The effects of uncertainties in growth rates and fraction of emissions attributed to the automobile were also sizeable. Differences in automotive growth rate had a large near-term effect on projected concentrations, while differences in nonautomotive growth rate or fraction of emissions attributed to the automobile had a large long-term effect. The effect of 1975 interim automotive emission standards on projected air quality was negligible when compared with projected air quality based on the previous Federal automotive emission standards for 1975.