Statistical Forecasting Models:I. Carbon Monoxide Concentrations in the Los Angeles Basin

Abstract

The body of information presented in this paper is directed to those individuals constructing models for forecasting carbon monoxide concentrations and/or wishing to know which parameters were found most closely associated with CO concentrations.

Models for forecasting daily maximum CO concentrations throughout the Los Angeles area were derived using least squares. The parameters that proved most significant within the models derivedfor forecasting daily maximum CO concentrations were the preceding day's CO concentrations, pressure differences between nearby stations, the height of the 500 mb level, temperatures at the surface, 1000 mb and/or 950 mb, days of the week, the length of daylight, and potential solar radiation. These models are currently being employed by the South Coast Air Quality Management District with good results.