An Alternative Technique for Analyzing Sulfur Dioxide Concentrations from A Single Source

Abstract

An analytical technique for more realistically predicting source emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO₂), to be used in conjunction with an alternative method of predicting violations of air quality standards, is presented. The mean and variability of sulfur content in the base fuel is represented by a log-normal distribution. The CRSTER model is utilized as the basic dispersion model in this technique. The CRSTER results are statistically analyzed using a cumulative distribution function for the source strength to predict the potential for violations of predetermined air quality standards. Using representative plant input characteristics, actual meteorological data and estimates of sulfur content in low-sulfur coal, probabilities of one excursion and multiple excursions, defined as a violation, of the 24-hour PSD increment for SO₂ are calculated. While arbitrary autocorrelations are discussed, for the most part results are derived assuming an emission rate which is perfectly correlated in time. Regulatory acceptance of this technique would allow a plant operator to choose the preferred combination of sulfur content mean and variability for a specific source while complying with air quality regulations.