Identification of epidemiological models: the case study of Yemen cholera outbreak

ABSTRACT

A full ODE model for the transmission of cholera is investigated, including both direct and indirect transmission and a nonlinear growth for pathogens. The direct problem is preliminarily studied and characterized in terms of reproduction number, endemic and disease free equilibria. The inverse problem is then discussed in view of parameter estimation and model identification via a Least Squares Approximation approach. The procedure is applied to real data coming from the recent Yemen cholera outbreak of 2017–2018.

Keywords:

• Waterborne disease
• inverse problems
• differential model
• parameter estimation

2010 Mathematics Subject Classifications:

• 34L30
• 37C75
• 65L09

Acknowledgements

This paper has been performed under the auspices of the G.N.F.M. of INdAM and partially supported by the Regione Campania Project ADVISE.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.