Work or retirement? Exit routes for Norwegian elderly

Abstract

This study analyses early retirement pathways for Norwegian male and female workers, applying a multinomial logit model to a data set covering more than 10500 employees, ages 56-61, in 1989. The aim is to analyse the transition to different destinations, i.e. disability pension, unemployment benefits, and out of the labour force, in the period 1989-1995. Both family characteristics, expected income in different end-states, and push factors, such as industry attachment and local unemployment, are important for the early retirement process. Findings also indicate that there are several gender differences. The explanatory variables have different effects on the different exit routes for males as well as for females. The hypothesis that disability and unemployment are exchangeable pathways into early retirement is rejected.