Output, consumption and the stock market: implications for European convergence

Abstract

This paper investigates the nature of the relationship between output and stock prices, and consumption and stock prices, with respect to the different financial structures that exist primarily in the European Union (EU). Evidence is found of a long-run relationship for both relationships, with the exception of Germany and to an extent France, which is argued is due to their bank dominated financial systems. Kalman Filter estimates reveal that both relationships have increased in strength, although little evidence is found of any convergence in the strength of the relationship across the EU.