Output dynamics of the G7 countries--stochastic trends and cyclical movements

Abstract

Using a time series framework, the paper studies the interactions of the annual real per capita GDP data of the G7 countries. Evidence is found of six common nonstationary processes behind the international output dynamics. In addition, there is evidence for the existence of a common business cycle among these countries. The trend and cycle components of each output series are obtained with a procedure that accounts for the presence of both the common nonstationary and cyclical factors. It is found that the relative variability and the correlation of the trend and cycle components are not similar across the G7 countries.