Estimating statistical properties of political economic decisions

Abstract

Revelation of criteria implicit in setting policy is addressed in a political economic framework that includes identification and estimation of unknown parameters in the presence of multiple sources of uncertainty. Policy formation is viewed as an optimization process under which the government maximizes a criterion function subject to market constraints. A method for estimating political criterion function weights and their associated standard errors over multiple time periods is presented. The approach is illustrated with an empirical example from Japanese rice and wheat trade policy.