Effects of consumer preferences on the convergence of mobile telecommunications devices

Abstract

Amidst the overall trend of convergence in information technology, device convergence is noteworthy. This study looks at the possible direction of device convergence based on consumer preferences for the main attributes of the mobile terminal of the future. Conjoint analysis and a mixed logit model using a Bayesian approach with Gibbs sampling are used to learn consumer preferences. Results show that consumers generally prefer a keyboard and a medium-sized display, although at present most consumers are indifferent to whether the terminal provides high-quality Internet service and to whether it operates many kinds of application programs or programs originally designed for personal computers. Given the heterogeneity of consumer preferences, partial, rather than perfect, device convergence is anticipated. Implications for the future of device convergence and how it will affect other types of convergence are drawn.

Notes

Blackman (1998) dealt with the convergence phenomenon as a whole, treating convergence between telecommunications and media, and showing some implications for new, appropriate regulatory frameworks. Messerschmitt (1996) dealt with convergence between computing and telecommunications technologies, specifically in terms of networked computing applications, and emphasized the importance of user-to-user applications in convergence. Mueller (1999) also dealt with convergence as a whole. In his working paper, in regard to device convergence, he insisted that because of the new media ecology and technological improvements, devices and applications would become more diverse and specialized while becoming more interoperable. Yoffie (1997) referred to past examples of device convergence such as between the television and the videocassette recorder and emphasized knowing whether consumer needs exist or not to predict success of device convergence.

For details, see Train (2003, pp. 302–6).