Food import demand in Peru, 1980-2021

ABSTRACT

This study analyses and explains food imports from Peru: 1980–2021. The econometric method uses Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL) models. The result of the stationarity property of I(0) and I(1) of the variables suggests the use of the ARDL model. The Granger causality result shows that variables explain food imports. The bound test cointegration showed a long-run cointegration to exist between foot imports and income, the real exchange rate, relative prices, price of fertilizers, and institution. The short-run analysis shows positive effects of relative prices and the real exchange rate towards food imports. And in the long-run analysis, we have found a positive relationship between food imports and economic growth. Also, there is a negative relationship between food imports and the growth of the real exchange rate, the price of fertilizers, and the opening of the Free Trade Agreement. Policies for self-sufficiency are recommended through investment policies in human capital for research in fertilizers and alternative organic manures; in financial capital for access to credit for small producers; in social capital, with support for sectors with lower productivity in rural areas to reduce dependence on the international market and the growing demand for food imports that puts food security at risk.

KEYWORDS:

• Food imports
• self-reliance
• food security
• ARDL
• exchange rate
• institutions

JEL CLASSIFICATION:

• C22
• D02
• D40
• F10

Authors’ contributions

Both develop the theoretical-mathematical method. LV collects the information and estimates econometric Autoregressive Distributed Lag models (ARDL). JG suggest public policy and critical review.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).