Housing cycles and the period of production

Abstract

US fixed residential investment is one of the most periodic economic time series. A theory of housing cycles is analysed on the basis of the period of housing construction. Substantial lags between planning and completion phases of housing construction cause housing investment to respond cyclically to exogenous shocks in demand and production costs. Known structural parameters of the housing industry provide sharp numerical benchmarks for the resulting dynamic system. The calibrated model with two construction lags describes the housing data and cycles well.