Abstract
The development of technological solutions to minimize risks of the current climate can lead to two possible outcomes: increase in agricultural productivity and insights about adaptation to future climate change. Drawing on the hypothesis of induced innovation, we investigate whether spatial variations in climatic resources prompted the development of location-specific technologies that led to increased rice productivity in Nepal. Using Nepal's district-level time-series data (1991–1992 and 2002–2003), this article examines the extent to which technological innovations have provided farmers with means to respond to climatic constraints to enhance rice productivity in climatically marginal regions of the country. Complementing this analysis with relevant case studies, we also investigate how and to what extent Nepal's research establishments have provided farmers with technological options to alleviate climatic constraints in rice cultivation across the country's climatically diverse terrain. The findings from both the empirical and qualitative assessment indicate that Nepal's research establishment is engaged in and committed to the development of location-specific technologies that address the constraints of climate. The outcome of such commitment has been a series of technological innovations and changes in policies in agriculture. Together, this might have been responsible for higher yields among the districts with marginal climate, which have subsequently led to convergence of the rice productivity growth rate in the country. If the current trend of addressing the constraints of climate in agriculture through appropriate technological as well as institutional changes continues, then the prospect of adapting to further climate becomes more apparent in Nepal.
El desarrollo de soluciones tecnológicas para minimizar los riesgos del clima actual pueden conducir a dos posibles resultados: incremento en la productividad agrícola y a la generación de buenas ideas sobre adaptación a cambios climáticos futuros. Trabajando con based en la hipótesis de la innovación inducida, investigamos si las variaciones espaciales de recursos climáticos promovieron el desarrollo de tecnologías con especificidad locacional que llevaran a incrementar la productividad de arroz en Nepal. Utilizando los datos de series de tiempo a nivel de distrito en Nepal (1991–1992 y 2002–2003), este artículo examina la extensión con la que las innovaciones tecnológicas han dotado a los agricultores de los medios para responder a los avatares climáticos e incrementar la productividad del arroz en regiones climáticamente marginales del país. Complementando este análisis con estudios de caso relevantes, investigamos también cómo y en qué magnitud las entidades de investigación de Nepal han provisto a los agricultores con opciones tecnológicas para mitigar los efectos nocivos del clima para el cultivos del arroz por el abigarramiento climático del territorio nepalés. Los descubrimientos de esta evaluación tanto empírica como cualitativa indican que el establecimiento investigativo de Nepal está involucrado y comprometido con el desarrollo de tecnologías para localidades específicas con las que enfrenten los rigores del clima. El resultado de tal compromiso ha sido una serie de innovaciones tecnológicas y cambios de políticas en agricultura. En conjunto, esto podría ser responsable de los rendimientos más altos logrados en los distritos con climas marginales, que subsiguientemente han llevado a la convergencia de la tasa de crecimiento de productividad del arroz en el país. Si la tendencia actual de enfrentar los rigores del clima sobre la agricultura por medio de apropiados cambios tanto tecnológicos como institucionales continúa, entonces el prospecto de adaptarse a climas futuros se hace más aparente en Nepal.
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Acknowledgments
We would like to thank the Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives and the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology of the Government of Nepal for making the necessary data available for this study. Our appreciation goes to Harrij Van Velthuizen and Gunther Fischer of the Land Use Change and Agriculture Program of the International Institute of Applied System Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, for their detailed and insightful comments on an earlier draft of this article. The views and conclusions contained in this article are those of the authors and should not necessarily reflect the views of the government of Nepal. We would like to thank the editor and the anonymous reviewers for their comments, suggestions, and guidance.
Notes
1. According to the World Meteorological Organization (http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc_sr/?src=/climate/ipcc/emission/fn5.htm#1 [last accessed 6 October 2010]), an average of thirty years of continuous records is taken as normal. Only eighty-nine meteorological stations in Nepal have rainfall records for such a long period of time. Therefore, many other stations having records for less than thirty years had to be included.