The Changing Structure of Energy Supply, Demand, and CO₂ Emissions in China

Abstract

Because of its enormous population, rapid economic growth, and heavy reliance on coal, China passed the United States as the world's largest source of CO₂ emissions in 2006. China is also becoming a major factor in the global oil market. This article analyzes China's energy production and consumption, with a focus on the energy and CO₂ emissions per capita and per unit of gross domestic product (GDP) and the mix of energy sources and end uses. Energy flow diagrams for 1987 and 2007 make it possible to visualize the allocation of energy from sources through energy transformation to final uses in units of metric tons of coal equivalent. Declining coal use by residences, agriculture, and transportation has been more than offset by a massive increase in electricity and industry usage. The article places these changes in political–economic context and helps illustrate and explain the difficulties China faces in trying to reduce its absolute CO₂ emissions and why it instead proposes to reduce its CO₂ per unit of GDP.

Debido a su enorme población, rápido crecimiento económico y alta dependencia en carbón mineral, China sobrepasó a Estados Unidos en 2006 como la fuente más grande de emisiones de CO₂. China también se está convirtiendo en un factor mayor del mercado global del petróleo. Este artículo analiza la producción y consumo de energía en China, enfocando el tema de la energía y las emisiones de CO₂ per cápita y por unidad del producto nacional bruto (PNB) y la mezcla de fuentes de energía y usos finales. Los diagramas de flujos de energía para 1987 y 2007 hacen posible visualizar la asignación de energía desde las fuentes, a la transformación de la energía, hasta los usos finales en unidades equivalentes a toneladas métricas de carbón. La disminución del uso de carbón en residencias, agricultura y transporte ha sido poco menos que opacado por un incremento masivo en su uso para electricidad e industria. El artículo coloca estos cambios en contexto político–económico y ayuda a ilustrar y explicar las dificultades que enfrenta China al tratar de reducir sus emisiones de CO₂ en términos absolutos y por qué en su defecto propone reducir su CO₂ por unidad de PNB.

Keywords:

• China
• coal
• electricity
• energy flow diagram
• energy intensity

关键词:

• 中国
• 煤炭
• 电力
• 能流图
• 能源强度

Palabras clave:

• China
• carbón
• electricidad
• diagrama del flujo de energía
• intensidad energética

Acknowledgments

Canfei He would like to acknowledge funding from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (#41071075) and thanks Yan Yan for her excellent research assistance.

Notes

1. As the world's largest power plant of any kind, the Three Gorges Dam rightly attracts a great deal of attention, but its total contribution to China's energy needs must be put into perspective. In 2007, hydropower accounted for 14 percent of electricity generation in China, and the Three Gorges complex, then running at 61 percent of its planned 100TwH production (and 22.5 GW capacity), accounted for 14 percent of hydropower generation. Thus, the Three Gorges accounted for about 2 percent of China's electricity production in 2007. By the time it reaches full capacity in 2011, China's total generating capacity will have grown similarly, from 624 GW to over 1,000 GW, and the Three Gorges contribution will remain about 2 percent (U.S. EIA 2009).