Population turnaround and the peopling of the countryside? Migration from Sydney to country districts of New South Wales

SUMMARY

The notions of ‘population turnaround’ and migration equilibrium are examined in an analysis of outmigration from metropolitan New South Wales to non‐metropolitan districts, with particular reference to the 1976–81 period but with inclusion of data from the 1986 Census of Population and Housing. While the outmigration from Sydney has been substantial, and in some respects resembles the ‘turnaround’ which was underway in other western countries, it has been spatially confined. While the outmigration from Sydney lessened during 1981–86, it still remained significant. Meanwhile, regional labour force migration and movement from other state capital cities was contributing more to the population inflow in southern, western and some northern areas of New South Wales. An analysis of economic correlates of outmigration and more recent sample survey data suggests that while economic factors have been significant in the outmigration, environmental and lifestyle factors have been influential, and that some of the traditional economic models of migration have not been validated. A conceptualisation of outmigration involving economic and environmental push and pull factors, and various forms of trade‐offs is proposed as a partial explanation of the phenomenon.