Resolving contradictions in Indonesian fertility estimates

Abstract

Over the last half-century Indonesia has been concerned about excessive population growth. To reduce the levels of fertility the government in 1968 established a national family planning program. In the following three decades fertility levels fell from over five to under three children per woman. In the past decade questions have arisen about the validity and reliability of fertility estimates. Increasingly Indonesia's Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) have reported higher fertility than is recorded in the censuses and other large social sample surveys. In 2007 the discrepancy reached more than half a child on average. This paper reveals one of the major causes of the discrepancy and shows ways to adjust the DHS results to gain more reliable measures. At present Indonesian national fertility is very close to the policy target of replacement levels by the year 2010.

Notes

¹The census-type surveys referred to in this note are the Inter-censal Survey (Supas), the National Socio-Economic Survey (Susenas) and the decennial population census.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Terence H. Hull∗

∗ This research was supported by the UN Population Fund (UNFPA), Indonesia's National Family Planning Coordinating Board (BKKBN) and the National Development Planning Agency (Bappenas) through a consultancy titled ‘Revitalizing Family Planning in Indonesia’. The authors would like to thank Dr Adrian Hayes, Dr Meimanat Hossain-Chavoshi, Professor Peter McDonald and Professor Henry Mosley for criticisms and suggestions that helped shape the presentation of this method of fertility analysis. Thanks also to Mr Arizal Ahnaf, Deputy for Social Statistics at Statistics Indonesia (BPS, the central statistics agency), for providing encouragement to this critical review of a key social measure in Indonesia