https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8150-8572
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Abstract
This paper examines the relative effectiveness of fiscal policy and monetary policy in Indonesia during 1970–2015, using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration and Toda–Yamamoto causality. The ARDL results suggest that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between monetary policy and economic growth in Indonesia. In the short run, money supply is found to positively affect growth while interest rates negatively affect growth. We conclude that monetary policy is more effective than fiscal policy in both the long and the short run. The causality test reveals bidirectional causality between interest rates and growth. Overall, we find that monetary policy has a more profound impact on growth than fiscal policy. Evidence from the causality test in this study supports the Wagner hypothesis and the fiscal synchronisation hypothesis, and shows that there is coordination between the government and the central bank in Indonesia.
Artikel ini mengkaji keefektifan relatif kebijakan fiskal dan moneter di Indonesia dalam kurun waktu 1970-2015 dengan menggunakan metode uji autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) terhadap ko-integrasi dan kausalitas Toda-Yamamoto. Hasil ARDL menunjukkan adanya hubungan ekulibrium jangka panjang antara kebijakan moneter dan pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia. Dalam jangka pendek, penawaran uang mempengaruhi pertumbuhan secara positif sedangkan suku bunga mempengaruhi pertumbuhan secara negatif. Kami menyimpulkan bahwa kebijakan moneter lebih efektif dibandingkan kebijakan fiskal baik untuk jangka pendek maupun panjang. Uji kausalitas menunjukkan kausalitas dua arah antara suku bunga dan pertumbuhan. Secara umum, kami menemukan kebijakan moneter memiliki dampak lebih kuat terhadap pertumbuhan dibandingkan kebijakan fiskal. Bukti dari uji kausalitas dalam studi ini mendukung hipotesis Wagner dan sinkronisasi fiskal sekaligus membuktikan adanya koordinasi antara pemerintah dan bank sentral di Indonesia.
