Small World Network Model Validation. Case Study of Suartone Historical Fire in Corsica

ABSTRACT

In this work, the wildland fire that occurred near the Suartone village in Corsica is simulated using a hybrid model that combines the Small World Network model, the flame radiation model and macroscopic semi-physical properties of the fuel. Observed and simulated fires are compared in terms of the rate of spread and contour of the front. An agreement is found between simulated and observed contours with a deviation of 4% from the observed total spreading time. An agreement is also obtained on a qualitative basis between the calculated spread rates and the observed trends at intermediate phases. Finally, a sensitivity analysis of the present model based on a fractional factorial design is realized partially on the rate of spread confirmed that ignition temperature is the most influencing parameter, followed closely by the fuel load and the radiant fraction. This analysis allows also estimating the maximum error on the rate of spread of about 11% for 5% variation of these parameters.

KEYWORDS:

• Wildland fire
• small world model
• sensitivity analysis
• corsica fire

Acknowledgments

Thanks to CEREN-Valabre for financial support. GEO-SAFE project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under the Marie Sklodowska-Curie grant agreement N°691161”. The support of DGRSDT W1030400 is acknowledged. We thank Prof. P.A. Santoni for providing fuel data.

Disclosure of potential conflicts of interest

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by the Direction Générale de la Recherche Scientifique et du Développement Technologique [W1030400]; GEO-SAFE project- the European Union’s Horizon 2020Marie Sklodowska-Curie [691161].