The Challenge of Fire Prediction

ABSTRACT

Fire, the oldest combustion problem, is a major cause of human suffering and material loss, and yet our capabilities to predict its behavior for prevention and control is very limited. Efforts to improve fire safety have often concentrated on improving fire protection systems and extending fire service rather than on fire research. However, we see that fire periodically overruns the traditional fire suppression methods, particularly when there are natural disasters as wildland fires affecting urban areas, or earthquakes, or even when human errors or arson take place in complex facilities, such as petro-chemical industries, large buildings, or fuel transport. What is needed is a better fundamental understanding of fire initiation and development, which can then be applied during the design stage to minimize fire occurrence, rather than relying primarily on fire detection and suppression. The goal is to bring our predictive capabilities to a point where fire models could be developed for use by the designers of buildings, urban developments, factories, transportation, and space habitats, allowing them to evaluate the fire safety of their designs, and improve them if necessary. Significant progress has been made during the last twenty five years in fire prediction, but the question is whether we will be able to reach the above goal in the next quarter century.