The greenhouse effect

Abstract

Atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide affect the radiative heat balance and surface temperature of the earth. In the next 80 to 130 years, concentration of carbon dioxide is expected to double and the rest of the greenhouse gases to contribute half as much again to the greenhouse warming. Also, oceans have a large heat capacity and absorb half of any additional carbon dioxide emitted into the atmosphere. This will cause greenhouse warming to lag many decades behind increases in concentrations of greenhouse gases and cause a rise in sea level. Large complex computer models are used to simulate the present climate and to predict future changes. However, in these models, treatment of feedback mechanisms such as the influence of clouds on radiation will need to be improved to narrow the range of predictions and to provide firm guidance for remedial action.