Measuring Conditional Partial Expected Loss Under Uniformly Distributed Uncertain Timing

ABSTRACT

This note extends the Initial partial-mean concept for present worth analysis of risk by Buck and Askin (1986) to a two random variable case where the magnitude of a single cash flow Is a random variable, and the time duration is a random variable with uniform distribution. This extension leads to the calculation of the expected magnitude of a project loss given that the loss occurs. Computational formulas and numerical Illustrations are presented.