Shooting in the Dark: How Computer Software Can Improve the Quality of Public Policies

ABSTRACT

Most policy debates are fought largely with volleys of ideological slogans rather than evaluations of the costs and benefits arising from alternative proposals. The failure to measure costs and benefits creates a vacuum, rendering the political process more susceptible to manipulation by special interests. A lack of information regarding costs and benefits can also inhibit negotiations for mutually beneficial compromises. The failure to employ cost benefit analysis arises from the expense and time involved in measuring complicated phenomena. In addition, when decision makers do employ cost benefit analysis, they often omit significant gains and losses due to difficulties encountered in collecting information. In order to remedy these difficulties policy makers must make better use of computer software, which is currently being developed.