Risky behaviour resulting from bounded rationality

Abstract

One of the main topics of the theory of decision making under uncertainty is ‘bounded rationality’, which is a psychological alternative for the assumptions concerning the (normative) concepts of how decisions should be taken.

Traffic accidents may be seen as resulting from interface problems between traffic-system requirements and the cognitive capabilities of road users. These capabilities may be defined in terms of underlying psychological mechanisms, which are to some extent related to the boundaries of rational decision making.

Knowledge about these boundaries should be helpful in improving safety countermeasures, such as traffic rules and legislation, by allowing them to be better matched to the psychological mechanisms underlying behaviour. Other possibilities for improvement consist in the creation of decision support systems. These support decision makers who have difficulty in structuring decision problems and in using optimal information, combination and decision rules.

The rationalization of decision making by means of electronic decision supports will result in more homogeneous behaviour being displayed by traffic participants: a not unimportant spin-off for the policy-maker with an interest in traffic control and road safety.

Keywords:

• Decision making
• Traffic management
• Journey planning
• Road safety.