Prospects for climate change on three Polynesian outliers in Solomon Islands: Exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity

Abstract

Geografisk Tidsskrift Danish Journal of Geography 111(1):43–57, 2011

This paper discusses future prospects for climate change, impacts and adaptation of three small islands in Solomon Islands. Based on a review of literature a climate change scenario is suggested and with point of departure in a survey of three characteristics of the islands—bio-physical conditions, economic base and social organization—the exposure, sensitivity and adaptation options of island populations are analyzed. It is argued that the three islands are likely to be very differently affected for reasons related to all three categories of characteristics. Local adaptive capacity is likely to be insufficient, especially in the case of Ontong Java (which is an atoll), and economic, social, institutional and political factors, external to the islands, will be of increasing importance.

Key words:

• Climate change
• vulnerability
• adaptive capacity
• Solomon Islands
• Ontong Java
• Bellona
• Tikopia