Causal relations and land use transformation in the Sahel: conceptual lenses for processes, temporal totality and inertia

Abstract

The paper addresses the challenge of conceptualizing and analyzing complex change processes and causal explanations in human–environment systems. To illustrate this challenge empirically, the paper takes its point of departure in the apparent paradox that the agricultural practices in the desert fringe zone of the Sahel seem to remain remarkably unchanged despite huge and accelerating changes in major driving forces such as climate variations, population pressure, policies and market access. Such partly unexpected trends suggest that novel insight is needed into the human environment interactions that shape the use of land for cultivating purposes in this region. As a background for the paper’s conceptual discussion, recent developments in the Sahelian land use system are briefly described, using documentation from empirical case studies conducted in the northernmost region of Burkina Faso over the past 20 years. Specific attention is given to presenting (a) main trends in the transformation of the land use and livelihoods, (b) the co-evolution of possible driving forces that enables and constrains conditions for change and (c) characteristic trajectories of change. Inspired by the notions of process, temporal totality and inertia, the paper suggests employing a portfolio of complementary perspectives to investigate change processes. More precisely, four different conceptual lenses to analyze human–environment interaction are proposed and examined (the land change science framework, the double exposure notion, the system dynamics (SD) approach and coupled human–environmental timelines). Specific attention is given to the potential contribution of these respective lenses to enhancing our understanding of the land SD and to uncovering important causal relations. It is concluded that these conceptual lenses, in concert, can help to put process, in the sense of a sequence of successive stages, in the centre of our understanding of change and causal relationships in human–environmental systems.

Keywords:

• system dynamics
• land change science
• human–environment timelines
• exposures

Acknowledgement

The research is funded by two major projects: a grant from Danida-FFU (09-001-KU) (A region wide assessment of land systems resilience and climate robustness in the agricultural frontline of the Sahel) and the ERC project Waterworlds. The authors appreciate the constructive comments of two reviewers.