Multi-level climate adaptation policy and causation narratives

Abstract

Climate adaptation policies are meant to reduce the negative consequences of the impacts associated with anthropogenic climate change, and in turn their success often depends on causal relationships within natural and human systems. In this paper, I examine the use of narratives about these causal relationships and explore why narratives with little basis in observation can persist in guiding policy. I examine three case studies, one concerning a narrative of climate impacts, a second concerning the relationship between household wealth and vulnerability, and the third concerning the procedures and needs of policy-makers themselves. In each case, I find that the narrative that was needed to legitimize and continue the resource flow within an existing policy process continued, despite growing empirical and model-driven evidence to suggest that the narrative may not be correct. I compare these stories with theories from sociological and evolutionary theory and suggest the importance of correcting or improving policy processes to avoid this pathology.

Keywords:

• climate change adaptation
• narratives
• causation

Acknowledgements

Partial funding for this work came from the European Commission’s Seventh Framework Programme research project MEDIATION, coordinated by the University of Wageningen. The paper resulted from participation in a workshop held at the University of Copenhagen, as part of the WATERWORLDS project, funded by the European Research Council. I would like to thank the helpful comments of other participants in that workshop, as well as two anonymous reviewers of this article. Any remaining errors of fact, argument, or interpretation are my fault and not theirs.