Influence of meteorological parameters on Olea flowering date and airborne pollen concentration in four regions of Portugal

Abstract

For calculating the total annual Olea pollen concentration, the onset of the main pollen season and the peak pollen concentration dates, using data from 1998 to 2004, predictive models were developed using multiple regression analysis. Four Portuguese regions were studied: Reguengos de Monsaraz, Valença do Douro, Braga and Elvas. The effect of some meteorological parameters such as temperature and precipitation on Olea spatial and temporal airborne pollen distribution was studied. The best correlations were found when only the pre‐peak period was used, with thermal parameters (maximum temperature) showing the highest correlation with airborne pollen distribution. Independent variables, selected by regression analysis for the predictive models, with the greatest influence on the Olea main pollen season features were accumulated number of days with rain and rainfall in the previous autumn, and temperatures (average and minimum) from January through March. The models predict 59 to 99% of the total airborne pollen concentration recorded and the initial and peak concentration dates of the main Olea pollen season.

Keywords:

• Forecasting
• Olea
• pollen
• Portugal

Acknowledgements

The first author would like to thank the support of Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia SFRH/BD/13148/2003. The authors wish to thank Eng^o Guerner (DRAEM), Prof. Ana Maria Silva (ICAM), Eng^o Paulo Costa (ADVID) for providing the meteorological data for Braga, Reguengos de Monsaraz and Valença do Douro.