Sensitivity assessment of the impacts of climate change on streamflow using climate elasticity in Tigris River Basin, Iraq

ABSTRACT

The Tigris River Basin (TRB) is one of the main surface water resources for Iraq. The study investigates the sensitivity of streamflow to precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (ET) through using the climate elasticity concept in TRB inside Iraq. The results indicated that: (1) Streamflow was more sensitive to precipitation in Mediterranean catchments than in semi-arid catchments, and it was more sensitive to ET in semi-arid catchments than in Mediterranean catchments in TRB. (2) Over the last four decades, precipitation elasticity of streamflow (${\epsilon }_p$) values show an obvious increasing trend for most of the TRB catchments as the 1990s and 2000s had the highest values compared to the 1970s and 1980s, suggesting that streamflow is becoming more sensitive to precipitation, and the precipitation-streamflow relationship has changed. The findings of this study can help for the development of vulnerability assessment and climate change adaptation strategies in Iraq.

KEYWORDS:

• Tigris River Basin
• climate elasticity
• streamflow

Acknowledgements

The author is grateful to Dr Muthanna Al-Waeli, Department of Geography, University of Kufa, Eng Rana Ahmed and Eng Shawket Jameel, Iraqi Agro-Meteorological Centre for their support in some data provision; and to Dr Ahmed Alboabidallah, School of Marine Science and Engineering, University of Plymouth, UK, for his kind assistance. Special thanks to the reviewers and the Editor for their help.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.

Additional information

Funding

This study was supported by the author.