A hybrid multi-stage predictive model for supply chain network collapse recovery analysis: a practical framework for effective supply chain network continuity management

Abstract

In this paper, we present a multi-stage hybrid model for analysing a supply chain network (SCN) collapse recovery possibility. In the first stage of the model, we analyse the ability of an SCN to fulfil its customers required due date (RDD). As soon as the SCN defaults to timely fulfil their customers RDD, the second stage of the model is triggered to measure the collapse recovery possibility (CRP) of the SCN. Then, we calculate the final collapse recovery possibility (FCRP) of the SCN. Since the operation times, customer demand and external supply of raw material are uncertain, we use fuzzy triangular numbers to estimate the value of foregoing parameters. Consequently, we employ fuzzy program evaluation and review technique (FPERT) to calculate the completion time of SCN operations. In the third stage, for the critical elements of the SCN obtained from FPERT, the SC simulator is developed to provide a dynamic view of the SC and assesses the impact of decisions recommended by the SC fuzzy models on SC performance. Moreover, an empirical example is presented to validate the effectiveness of the proposed model. Finally, we conduct sensitivity analysis on the parameters employed in the model to analyse the behaviour of each parameter.

Keywords:

• supply chain network
• deterioration time
• collapse cost
• collapse recovery possibility
• final collapse recovery possibility
• fuzzy triangular numbers
• fuzzy program evaluation and review technique
• simulation
• inventory