Bayesian regularisation neural network based on artificial intelligence optimisation

Abstract

Stock prediction is generally considered to be challenging and known for its high noise and strong nonlinearities in financial time series analysis. However, current forecasting models ignore the importance of model parameter optimisation and the use of recent data. In this article, a novel forecasting approach with a Bayesian-regularised artificial neural networks (BR-ANN) was proposed. The weight of the proposed model (BR-ANN) is determined by the particle swarm optimisation (PSO) algorithm. Daily market prices and financial technical indicators are utilised as inputs to predict the one day future closing price of the Shanghai (in China) composite index. The Bayesian-regularised network uses a probabilistic nature for the network weights and can reduce the potential for over-fitting and over-training. Our empirical study and the results of our K-line theory analysis indicate that PSO is determined to be an effective algorithm to optimise the parameters of the Bayesian neural network compared with other well-known prediction algorithms. In particular, the PSO model is more reliable than the simple Bayesian regularisation neural network near the local maximum value.

Keywords:

• neural networks
• Bayesian methods
• PSO
• over-fitting
• local weights
• K-line