Abstract
This study proposes a manufacturing system for the production of a new product, which is achieved by optimum collaboration between members of the supply chain. From the perspective of an incumbent firm, the behaviours of randomly occurring competitors could significantly affect order quantities, and the resultant profitability could diminish competitiveness in the product market. An effective method is therefore required to quantitatively evaluate the influence of competitive companies on the incumbent’s profitability. The objective of this study is to minimise the incumbent’s cost for a new product under competition through an economical cost distribution. Considering the whole life of a product in the market, the Bayesian approach is used to analyse the behaviours of competitors, the work efficiency of employees, in addition to the related costs of the incumbent firm. The adequate cost strategy for manufacturing a new product under competition can be then available.