A recovery planning model for online business operations under the COVID-19 outbreak

Abstract

This study analytically develops a new recovery planning optimisation model for managing the impacts of the recent COVID-19 outbreak for online business operations. Firstly, a mathematical model for the ideal plan is designed and then extended to generate a recovery plan in a finite planning horizon that maximises total profit. Recovery plans are generated considering two scenarios, namely the dynamic and uncertain situations. For the dynamic situation, a realistic system with time-dependent and dynamic demand, supply, and warehouse capacity for investigating the impacts of the COVID-19 outbreak is developed using several measures, such as collaborating with emergency suppliers, increasing warehouse capacity, and considering back-orders and lost sales to form recovery strategies. For the uncertain situation, demand, supply, and warehouse capacities are considered as uncertain variables. Further, an innovative solution approach using an adapted differential evolution technique, which is capable of (i) generating long-term recovery plans and (ii) solving both small- and large-scale problems, is developed. The results are illustrated using numerical analyses and simulation experiments. A sensitivity analysis is also conducted. In practice, the proposed optimisation model will assist the decision-makers of online business operations facing the COVID-19 outbreak to decide the optimal recovery plans.

KEYWORDS:

• Recovery planning
• online business operations
• dynamic planning
• uncertainty
• COVID-19 outbreak

Acknowledgement

The authors sincerely thank the editors and reviewers for their critical comments, particularly during the very challenging times owing to the COVID-19 pandemic. They hope that all the editors and reviewers are safe from the virus.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Sanjoy Kumar Paul

Sanjoy Kumar Paul is currently working as a Senior Lecturer in operations and supply chain management at the University of Technology Sydney (UTS), Sydney, Australia. He has published more than 90 articles in top-tier journals including the European Journal of Operational Research, Transportation Research Part E, International Journal of Production Economics, Business Strategy and the Environment, Computers & Operations Research, International Journal of Production Research, Annals of Operations Research, International Journal of Physical Distribution and Logistics Management and so on. He is also an editor, editorial board member, and active reviewer of many reputed journals. His research interest includes supply chain risk management, applied operations research, and decision-making. Dr. Paul has received several awards, including ASOR Rising Star Award from the Australian Society for Operations Research, Excellence in Early Career Research Award from UTS Business School, the Stephen Fester prize for most outstanding thesis from UNSW, and high impact publications award for publishing articles in top-tier journals.

Md. Abdul Moktadir

Md. Abdul Moktadir is a Lecturer of Leather Products Engineering at the Institute of Leather Engineering and Technology, University of Dhaka, Bangladesh. He received his Bachelor of Science in Leather Products Engineering from the University of Dhaka and a Master of Engineering in Advanced Engineering Management from BUET. He has published more than 32 articles in various international reputed high impact journals including Journal of Cleaner Production, International Journal of Production Research, Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Computers & Industrial Engineering, Business Strategy and the Environment, Energy, Production Planning & Control, and Annals of Operations Research. He is also an active reviewer of many reputed international journals including the Journal of Cleaner Production, and Resources, Conservation & Recycling. He has received a good number of scholarly citations. His current research interests include sustainable supply chain management, risk management, energy-efficient supply chain, logistics, Industry 4.0, and circular economy.

Karam Sallam

Karam Sallam obtained his Ph.D. degree in computer science from the University of New South Wales, Canberra, Australia in 2018. He is currently a Lecturer at the University of Canberra, Canberra, Australia. His current research interests include evolutionary algorithms and optimisation, constrained-handling techniques for evolutionary algorithms, operation research, machine learning, deep learning, cybersecurity, and internet of things. He was a winner of the IEEE-CEC2020 competition. He is an organising committee member for different conferences in the evolutionary computation field and a reviewer for several international journals.

Tsan-Ming Choi

Tsan-Ming Choi received the Ph.D. degree from Department of Systems Engineering and Engineering Management, The Chinese University of Hong Kong in 2002. He is a professor in Department and Graduate Institute of Business Administration, National Taiwan University. Prof. Choi is currently the Co-Editor-in-Chief of Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, a Department Editor of IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, a Senior Editor of Production and Operations Management, and Decision Support Systems, an Associate Editor of Decision Sciences, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics: Systems, and Information Sciences. He has served as a member of the engineering panel of Research Grants Council (Hong Kong).

Ripon Kumar Chakrabortty

Ripon Kumar Chakrabortty is the Deputy Director (Acting) of Capability Systems Centre at the School of Engineering & Information Technology, UNW Canberra, Australia. He is currently a lecturer on System Engineering & Project Management and also the programme coordinator for Master of Decision Analytics & Master of Engineering. He is currently the Group Leader of the Cross-Disciplinary Optimisation Under Capability Context Research Team. He obtained his Ph.D. from the same University in 2017, while completed his MSc and BSc from Bangladesh University of Engineering & Technology on Industrial & Production Engineering in 2013 and 2009 respectively. He has written two book chapters and over 135 technical journal and conference papers. His research interest covers a wide range of topics in Operations Research, Project Management, Supply Chain Management, Artificial Intelligence, Cyber-physical Systems, and Information Systems Management. His research programme has been funded by many organisations, such as the Department of Defence, Commonwealth Government, Australia.