A post‐mortem of manpower forecasts in Thailand

Summary

Educational planning, in the modern sense of the term, goes back in Thailand no further than 1962, when the Second Economic and Social Development Plan (1962/66) was launched. The Second Plan included a plan for the educational system as did the Third Plan (1967/71) which is now drawing to a close. These two educational plans were based on a variety of methods, including those of making long‐term forecasts of manpower requirements. Between 1963 and 1967, five different groups prepared manpower forecasts for Thailand, some of which looked no further than 1970, while others projected manpower requirements up to 1968. In this paper we will try to assess the quality of these forecasts and, so far as it is possible, to cmmpare prediction with outcome.

The paper consists of four parts. We begin with a brief review of background data in order to highlight the problems of manpower forecasting in an economy such as that of Thailand. The second section is devoted to a detailed discussion of the first and most ambitious of the five forecasts that have been made in Thailand. This is followed by brief evaluations of the remaining four forecasts. In the fast section, we will consider the influence that these forecasts actually exerted on educational planning in Thailand.

Notes

Professor of the Economics of Education at the University of London Institute of Education. This pap sr is based on a more comprehensive report on educational planning in Thailand, which was prepared for the National Education Council (N.E.C.) of Thailand in 1968. Although the Ford Foundation, at the request of N.E.C., made my services available at that time, the views expressed by me in that report and in this paper are entirely my own.