The Overconfident Principles of Economics Student: An Examination of a Metacognitive Skill

Abstract

Students in a large principles of macroeconomics class were asked to predict their performance on a regularly scheduled midterm examination. The author collected and analyzed data to examine the effect of various demographic characteristics, academic endowments, course preparation, and course performance variables on the accuracy of pretest expectations. A two-equation recursive model was estimated by the author to determine which factors influenced the accuracy of student expectations (predictive calibration). The results indicated that a pervasive degree of overconfidence existed within the sample. Although age and overall academic performance were found to temper overconfidence, students with credit in a previous economics course had a greater probability of reporting overconfident expectations. Overconfidence was found to be associated with lower degrees of predictive calibration. Misjudgments concerning the scope of the midterm were found to lower predictive calibration scores, ceteris paribus. These and other results indicate that unmet student performance expectations may be a root cause for the routinely observed student dissatisfaction within the traditional principles course.

Key Words:

• metacognition
• performance
• predictive calibration
• students
• A22

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Paul W. Grimes

Paul W. Grimes is a professor of economics at Mississippi State University (e-mail: [email protected]). An earlier version of this article was presented at the Allied Social Science Associations meetings in Boston, January 2000. Special appreciation is expressed to Peter Kennedy, Leo Kahane, Janie Phelps, and two anonymous referees for their constructive comments and to Marybeth Charters and Sara Morris for library and editorial assistance. Also, thanks are extended to all of the students who participated in the study and to Penny Adams for the necessary data collection and compilation procedures.