Rational Expectations and the Theory of Macroeconomic Policy: An Exposition of Some of the Issues

Abstract

Turnovsky observes that “the rational expectations hypothesis has had a profound impact on macroeconomic theory and policy during the past decade.” Tracing briefly the evolution of the ideas involved, he concludes that “… a consensus view is emerging that in fact under quite plausible conditions the policy neutrality proposition does not hold; therefore, there is still scope for policy rules to play an important role in stabilizing output.”

The mathematics used in the article is expository rather than analytical, requiring of the reader only somewhat more than the usual amount of persistence, faith in the author's interpretation of the literature, and a willingness to accept the integrity of economic models as representative of the real world. This is “required” reading for those teaching macroeconomics.