The Validity of Admissions Predictions: A Replication Study and Implications for the Future

Abstract

This study reports on the replication of an earlier study of the validity of admissions predictions. The results were largely negative and called into question the validity of admissions predictions, particularly as they relate to success in field instruction. Interjudge reliability was low, predictions captured small proportions of total variance, and year-to-year variability was apparent. Suggestions for future research include focusing attention on the study of faculty as admissions decision makers, with increased attention to the high level of variability that occurs in both applicants for admission and the faculty who make admissions judgments.