A Study of College Student Attrition Via Probabilistic Approach

Abstract

This exploratory paper proposes a probabilistic approach to investigating college student attrition. Through the use of attributable risk, the top risk factors for attrition are identified and ranked. Then the issue of confounding risk between two risk factors is addressed by the means of relative attributable risk. Though it is only illustrated by the eight-year attrition data collected at a private institution, the proposed technique is comparatively simple for institutional researchers to test on their own data.

Keywords:

• attrition
• attributable risk
• probability
• retention
• relative attributable risk
• risk factor

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

We like to thank both Dr. Patrick Doreian and the referee for their insightful suggestions in the revision of this article.