Critique of probabilistic models: Application of the Semi‐Markov model to migration

The role of probabilistic models, with special reference to application of the Semi‐Markov model to the analysis of internal migration, is discussed. Advantages of probabilistic models over more conventional methods based on regression analysis are detailed. Probabilistic models have stood apart from the rest of the literature, in migration as well as other areas of application, because they have no substantive content. It is argued that unless their parameters are related to the causal structure and exogenous determinants of the migration process, probabilistic models will be of little practical and scientific use. A strategy for integrating probabilistic models with theoretical and empirical analysis is sketched, to be carried out in the next article.