The estimation of the prevalence of delinquency: Two approaches and a correction of the literature†

The work of Robert A. Gordon on this paper was supported in part by Research Grant MH 13951 from the National Institute of Mental Health, and by National Science Foundation Grant GS‐29873. The work of Leon Jay Gleser was supported in part by N.I.H. Training Grant No. GM‐1237–07 awarded to the Department of Statistics, The Johns Hopkins University. This paper in whole or in part may be reproduced for any purpose of the United States Government.

The index “the proportion of a cohort that have become delinquent by a given age,” here called the “prevalence of delinquency,” is an important social indicator. In the present paper, we indicate methods by which this index can be estimated from data, and correct errors in previous sex‐ and race‐specific prevalence estimates published by Monahan (1960) for the city of Philadelphia. The difference between the sexes and between the races shown by these corrected prevalence estimates are of sufficient magnitude to render suspect any comparisons of prevalences of delinquency among cohorts which do not take account of the sex and race compositions of the cohorts to be compared.

Notes

The work of Robert A. Gordon on this paper was supported in part by Research Grant MH 13951 from the National Institute of Mental Health, and by National Science Foundation Grant GS‐29873. The work of Leon Jay Gleser was supported in part by N.I.H. Training Grant No. GM‐1237–07 awarded to the Department of Statistics, The Johns Hopkins University. This paper in whole or in part may be reproduced for any purpose of the United States Government.

Now in the Department of Statistics, Purdue University.