Educational aspirations as a markovian process: A panel study of college and non‐college plans during high school†

The author would like to express his gratitude to Gene F. Summers, Director, Center of Applied Sociology for permission to use data from the Rural Industrial Development Project which was supported by the College of Agricultural and Life Sciences, University of Wisconsin‐Madison and by the National Institute of Mental Health, PHS Grant MH‐19689, Gene F. Summers and John P. Clark, Principal Investigators. The author would like to thank the readers for their helpful Comments and suggestions on this paper.

An initial test of the discrete‐time Markov model in the study of educational aspirations throughout high school was carried out. The design of the study permitted testing for sex differences and order effects The results indicate a good fit between the data and the model across several cohorts of students. Order effects were apparent, but sex differences in the transition probabilities were not found. Future change in aspirations appears least likely for students with a history of stable college plans, while it is most likely for those who start with non‐college aspirations and change to college plans.

Notes

The author would like to express his gratitude to Gene F. Summers, Director, Center of Applied Sociology for permission to use data from the Rural Industrial Development Project which was supported by the College of Agricultural and Life Sciences, University of Wisconsin‐Madison and by the National Institute of Mental Health, PHS Grant MH‐19689, Gene F. Summers and John P. Clark, Principal Investigators. The author would like to thank the readers for their helpful Comments and suggestions on this paper.

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